Photo:
Churchill Downs drawing – Horse Racing Nation composite
The arithmetic may be more stubborn, but historic precedent
says the connections for 12 horses should feel comfortable making plans for
Kentucky Derby 2025.
By winning last weekend in the first major preps, Tiztastic
from the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and Final Gambit out of the Jeff Ruby Steaks
(G3) were assured of invitations. So was Chunk of Gold, whose second-place
finish at Fair Grounds added 25 previously earned points clinched his berth.
Saturday fields for Derby preps, 8 other graded stakes.
They joined Coal Battle and Owen Almighty above the mathematical
cutline that dropped from 61 points to the best of those with 60. Earnings in non-restricted
stakes are the first tiebreaker. Citizen Bull’s $1,376,000 cannot be reached
by any other horse with exactly 60 points.
Historically, no horse with at least 46 points has been shut
out of a Derby invitation. That provides the common sense that says Flying
Mohawk, the Jeff Ruby runner-up, also is safely in with his 50 points.
The same thing may be said for Sovereignty, who has 60
points and will slam dunk the math question if he finishes in the top five
Saturday in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.
American Promise, Flood Zone, Journalism and Getaway Car
also have checked the 46-point box.
The Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby (G1) winners Saturday
get automatic berths to run for the roses. The second-place horses will clear
the historic barrier, and if they include Madaket Road, Sandman, Speed King
and-or Neoequos, they will do the math, too.
Now come the complications. Until the Japan and
Europe-Middle East slots are dealt with, there are only 17 post positions that are
assured for the main road to the Derby.
The Japan invitation may be claimed Saturday with the
running of the Fukuryu Stakes, the last stop on that path to Kentucky. Luxor
Café, the American Pharoah colt who finished first last month in the Hyacinth,
would clinch that berth with a victory this weekend at Nakayama.
The Europe-Middle East invitations are likely to be taken by
the top two finishers of the UAE Derby (G2). The April 5 race at Meydan was
moved off the main points road this year, but that may be nothing more than a
procedural difference without a distinction.
Actual race results, equine fitness and changes of plans
will make the Kentucky Derby field crystal clear in the next few weeks. Until
then, let this chart be a guide to show Saturday finishes which are needed to get past the mathematical cutline over 60 points to clinch and what are required to reach probable invitations at the historic threshold of 46.
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched, 61+ | Rk. | Pts. | **Earnings | Sat. entries |
| Tiztastic | 1st | 119.00 | $1,395,800 | |
| Final Gambit | 2nd | 100.00 | $446,400 | |
| Chunk of Gold | 3rd | 75.00 | $324,400 | |
| Coal Battle | 4th | 70.00 | $1,034,500 | Arkansas Derby |
| Owen Almighty | 5th | 65.00 | $415,310 | |
| Citizen Bull | 6th | *60.00 | $1,376,000 | |
| Prob. in, top 5 clinches | ||||
| Sovereignty | 7th | 60.00 | $364,800 | Florida Derby |
| History says yes, 46+ | ||||
| American Promise | 8th | 55.00 | $335,000 | |
| Flood Zone | 9th | 50.00 | $165,000 | |
| Flying Mohawk | 10th | 50.00 | $156,800 | |
| Journalism | 11th | 47.50 | $300,000 | |
| Getaway Car | 12th | 46.00 | $570,800 | |
| Top 2 clinches, top 4 prob. | ||||
| Madaket Road | 17th | 31.00 | $244,000 | Florida Derby |
| Top 2 clinches, top 3 prob. | ||||
| Sandman | 20th | 29.00 | $307,995 | Arkansas Derby |
| Speed King | 23rd | 25.00 | $631,250 | Arkansas Derby |
| Top 2 clinches | ||||
| Neoequos | 33rd | 15.00 | $41,250 | Florida Derby |
| Win clinches, top 2 prob. | ||||
| Publisher | 41st | 10.00 | $85,000 | Arkansas Derby |
| Tappan Street | 43rd | 10.00 | $49,000 | Florida Derby |
| Monet’s Magic | 62nd | 2.00 | $36,000 | Arkansas Derby |
| Enterdadragon | 0.00 | $46,592 | Florida Derby | |
| Smoken Boy | 0.00 | $35,960 | Florida Derby | |
| Brereton’s Baytown | 0.00 | $31,250 | Arkansas Derby | |
| Cool Intentions | 0.00 | $4,410 | Florida Derby | |
| Bestfriend Rocket | 0.00 | $0 | Arkansas Derby | |
| Cornucopian | 0.00 | $0 | Arkansas Derby | |
| Disruptor | 0.00 | $0 | Florida Derby | |
| First Division | 0.00 | $0 | Arkansas Derby | |
| Indecisiveness | 0.00 | $0 | Florida Derby | |
| Jimmy’s Dailys | 0.00 | $0 | Florida Derby | |
| Not yet | ||||
| Built | 13th | 45.00 | $180,000 | |
| Chancer McPatrick | 14th | 35.00 | $550,000 | |
| John Hancock | 15th | 35.00 | $160,000 | |
| Maximum Promise | 16th | 33.00 | $21,750 | |
| E-M | ||||
| E-M | ||||
| Jpn | ||||
| Outside looking in | ||||
| Poster | 18th | 31.00 | $194,700 | |
| Burnham Square | 19th | 30.00 | $171,800 | |
| Render Judgment | 21st | 29.00 | $126,610 | |
| Omaha Omaha | 22nd | 26.00 | $142,500 | |
| Instant Replay | 24th | 25.00 | $100,000 | |
| River Thames | 25th | 25.00 | $79,200 | |
| Sand Devil | 26th | 25.00 | $60,000 | |
| Hill Road | 27th | 24.00 | $215,000 | |
| Rodriguez | 28th | 21.25 | $76,000 | |
| Captain Cook | 29th | 20.00 | $137,500 | |
| California Burrito | 30th | 20.00 | $109,008 | |
| Barnes | 31st | 18.75 | $180,000 | |
| Gaming | 32nd | 18.00 | $569,000 | |
| Garamond | 34th | 15.00 | $36,000 | |
| Patch Adams | 35th | 14.00 | $71,500 | |
| Giocoso | 36th | 13.00 | $33,025 | |
| Studlydoright | 37th | 11.00 | $274,775 | |
| East Avenue | 38th | 10.00 | $368,750 | |
| Baby Max | 39th | 10.00 | $114,776 | |
| Caldera | 40th | 10.00 | $95,360 | |
| Cyclone State | 42nd | 10.00 | $82,500 | |
| Vassimo | 44th | 10.00 | $30,000 | |
| Mellencamp | 45th | 8.50 | $22,000 | |
| Touchy | 46th | 6.00 | $105,000 | |
| Innovator | 47th | 6.00 | $97,500 | |
| Dapper Moon | 48th | 6.00 | $46,238 | |
| Gate to Wire | 49th | 5.00 | $148,950 | |
| Tip Top Thomas | 50th | 5.00 | $100,000 | |
| Brodeur | 51st | 5.00 | $10,500 | |
| Clock Tower | 52nd | 4.00 | $103,938 | |
| Take Charge Tom | 53rd | 4.00 | $103,000 | |
| Golden Afternoon | 54th | 4.00 | $73,875 | |
| Camp Hale | 55th | 4.00 | $10,000 | |
| Smooth Cruisein | 56th | 3.75 | $18,000 | |
| Mo Plex | 57th | 3.00 | $156,250 | |
| Filoso | 58th | 3.00 | $59,875 | |
| Smoken Wicked | 59th | 2.00 | $140,450 | |
| He’s Not Joking | 60th | 2.00 | $85,249 | |
| Bon Temps | 61st | 2.00 | $39,625 | |
| Admiral Dennis | 63rd | 2.00 | $35,250 | |
| Rank | 64th | 2.00 | $12,500 | |
| Itsmybirthday | 65th | 2.00 | $11,640 | |
| Uncle Jim | 66th | 2.00 | $10,000 | |
| Bracket Buster | 67th | 1.00 | $5,820 | |
| *has earnings tie-breaker | ||||
| **non-restricted stakes | ||||
| E-M Euro-Mideast berth | ||||
| Jpn Japan berth |
