What horses need to clinch invites

Eleven horses have clinched their invitations with at least
four more horses joining them when they win Saturday’s final major preps for
Kentucky Derby 2025.

With another five already looking good based on historic
precedent, that means the field of 20 should be set, right? Well, no.

Ed DeRosa’s fair odds for Kentucky Derby 2025.

While history says no horse with at least 46 qualifying points
ever has been denied a run for the roses, that was only after attrition came
into play. Last year Deterministic and No More Time did not use the invitations
they clinched. A race-day scratch in 2023 meant top qualifier Forte went to the
sidelines and joined Practical Move, Lord Miles, Wild on Ice and Blazing Sevens
in not using their Derby berths.

Derby dropouts have become an annual tradition every year
since the points system was inaugurated 12 years ago. So the horses who come
out of this big weekend at the front of the waiting list carry more than just
hope for their connections.

With the Lexington (G3) on April 12 providing a 20-10-6-4-2
top-up opportunity, the mathematical cutline remains with Citizen Bull, who
holds the earnings tiebreaker against any horse who could tie him with 60
points. The bigger question might be whether the historic 46-point minimum
holds true.

As Horse Racing Nation colleague put it years ago, Derby
invitations are like seats on an airplane. They always seem to be overbooked,
but somehow everybody gets where they are going.

Putting it another way, this is not like West Virginia
getting snubbed so North Carolina could get in the NCAA Tournament. If
basketball were horse racing, somehow, the Mountaineers would have made it to
Churchill Downs.

There is one other complication that is unprecedented. Flood
Zone, who won the Gotham (G3), has 50 points on the main Kentucky Derby trail,
historically enough to qualify but not mathematically yet. If he were to win or
finish second in the UAE Derby (G2), he would clinch via the separate
Europe-Middle East path that now includes the Meydan race. Flood Zone could have
two ways to claim his berth at Churchill Downs.

The rule for the Europe-Middle East road says, “No
invitation will be extended beyond the top four point-earners, but if a horse
also qualifies through America’s (road), the invite will be extended to the
next eligible horse.” What is not clear is whether that choice must be made
before it is certain Flood Zone had the math to clinch the U.S. berth. Kentucky
Derby officials asked about it this week did not yet have a certain answer.

That complication aside, these are the scenarios showing
what Saturday’s entrants need either to clinch their Kentucky Derby invitations
or become probables based on the 46-point history. For those with the double asterisk, they can make themselves eligible with a $3,000 Triple Crown nomination before the close of business Monday.