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Todd Zola
Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
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New York Mets LHP David Peterson was initially slated for Thursday, but the club opted to call up RHP Justin Hagenman to serve as the primary pitcher, pushing Peterson to Friday. His first three outings have been quality starts and he’s in another good spot with a home date against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals offense boast the fourth best wOBA this season. However, they’ve slumped over the past week as they’re without SS Masyn Winn and C Ivan Herrera.
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Detroit Tigers rookie RHP Jackson Jobe is coming off his first career quality start, a six-inning blanking of the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Jobe has only fanned nine in 15 innings, and the opposing Kansas City Royals put the ball in play, but they’re averaging the third fewest runs per game in MLB.
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The Boston Red Sox will likely recall RHP Hunter Dobbins for Friday’s home start against the Chicago White Sox. Dobbins hasn’t pitched well for Triple-A Worcester, but he collected a win in a spot-start earlier this month, fanning five Cardinals in five frames. The White Sox are averaging the second-fewest runs per game while striking out at an above average clip.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
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It’s obviously clear why Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom is rostered in nearly 90% of ESPN leagues. However, after hurling five scoreless frames with six strikeouts in his opener against the Boston Red Sox, deGrom has yielded seven earned runs in the ensuing 9 2/3 frames, punching out just seven while surrendering four homers. Next up is a home date with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite the defending World Champions averaging just the 11th most runs per game, avoiding deGrom for this challenging matchup is the safe play.
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Generally, it’s wise to reserve all starting pitchers in Coors Field. Occasionally, it’s tempting to take the chance on an upper-end visitor, such as Washington Nationals RHP MacKenzie Gore. For the season, the Colorado Rockies are scoring the fewest runs per game, but at home they’re plating the 12th most, despite sporting the fourth highest home strikeout rate. In leagues with weekly games started limits, avoiding Gore makes sense. However, with no restrictions, his 32:6 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 innings merits taking the risk.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Hitters to avoid on Friday
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The Tigers are averaging the fourth most runs per game at home, but on Friday they square off with Royals LHP Cole Ragans. The lefty is an early candidate for April Pitcher of the Month with 34 strikeouts to just four free passes in 23 2/3 stanzas. Ragans has racked up double digit punch outs for three straight games.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day’s games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.
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