Horse Racing

Run for Roses at Churchill Downs could use tweak

by
Scoops
April 26, 2025

Baeza is one example of a Kentucky Derby-worthy horse that may not get in due to a rule change in the point system.
Last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek said he’d like the best fillies to have a pathway for the race, but there’s not really an option if they are chasing points for the Oaks.

Trainer Mark Casse, whose colt Sandman finished second in the Road to Kentucky Derby leaderboard, believes the post draw in the Run for the Roses should reflect the points system.

Finish first in points and get first pick in selecting a post. Priority would be given by points on down the list until the 20th horse gets his gate. It’d be a way to ensure the better horses don’t get stuck with poor draws and those that barely qualified and have little chance of winning aren’t starting from a prime position.

“Can we do it this year?” joked Ian Wilkes, trainer of Burnham Square, which finished first in points this year.

Casse believed it could also trickle down to leading more owners and trainers running their horses in more prep races.

Of course, Saturday’s draw didn’t happen like that.

Sandman will operate out of post 17, which has historically been one of the worst positions, and its lone winner was Rich Strike in 2022. Burnham Square (9) and Journalism (8) got favorable posts.

“We’ve ran, and we’ve ran hard; we should be rewarded for that,” Casse said. “(Now) it’s just the luck of the draw.”

It’s a good idea to try as much as possible to deny luck from playing a part in what is annually the most visible and important two minutes in horse racing. But the post draw is far from being the most important matter until the point system itself is refined.

There are worthy horses who don’t get in the field. There are, let’s just say, less-than-worthy horses that do. And that needs to change.

Trainer Brad Cox believes there should be some wiggle room for automatic berths in the Derby field.

He’d start with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race, for 2-year-old colts and geldings, which has produced six Derby winners since 1984, including Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016. (The Bob Baffert-trained Derby entrant Citizen Bull won it in November.)

Cox would like to give Grade 1 races for 2-year-olds like the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park and Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland (won by Derby entrant East Avenue) more weight in the points system. It would provide an avenue for owners and trainers to race in fewer prep races for the overall benefit of the horse’s health.

“Maybe only have one prep leading up, if you choose to do that, because there are small, nagging things with horses at times that need to be addressed, and I do think the Derby can kind of put (addressing) those things on hold,” Cox said.

Kenny McPeek, who became the first trainer since 1952 to sweep the Kentucky Oaks and Derby last year, sees a glaring hole in the points system. McPeek believes “the best one or two fillies” should have an option to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

McPeek should know. He partnered his Oaks winner, Thorpedo Anna, with his Derby winner, Mystik Dan, for much of their early training. McPeek not only believes Thorpedo Anna could have competed against the colts, he thinks she could have won the Derby last year.

“No filly will ever win it again until they change the point system,” McPeek said.

The good thing is the point system is constantly being tweaked to get it right. The bad news is one of those recent changes tweaked a potential contender right out of the race.

Baeza finished second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, which has seen 19 starters and 10 of its winners go on to win the Kentucky Derby. But this year’s race only had five starters, including Citizen Bull.

Because of the rules change, only 75% of points were awarded since the field size shrunk, leaving Baeza to collect just 37.5 points instead of 50. Had it been awarded the full number for a second-place finish, Baeza would be tied with Flying Mohawk and Grande at 15th on the leaderboard, after Saturday’s news of Tappan Street’s scratch, and comfortably in the Derby field.

Instead, Baeza may have to look toward the Preakness Stakes unless one more horse has to withdraw from the field.

Ensuring the Kentucky Derby gets the 20 best 3-year-olds should never come down to the luck of the draw.

Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.